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The Long Term Look

Revenue Forecast Shows Need for Tax Reform

An Oregon Center for Public Policy (OCPP) analysis of data contained in the Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast released today shows that state General Fund revenues are projected to fall well short of levels needed to fund public services through 2007-09. The unspent revenues and the new projection of slightly faster economic growth contained in today’s forecast will hardly make a dent in the gap between future budgets and public services that Oregonians benefited from in the recent past.

General Fund revenues were 10.7 percent of Oregonians’ personal income in 1999-01, and they plummeted to 9.3 percent in 2001-03 (Table 1 and Figure 1). OCPP analysis shows that by 2007-09 general fund revenues will be just 9.2 percent of personal income. Adjusted for inflation and population, general fund revenue was $2,947 per capita in 1999-01 and it will be just $2,915 per capita by 2007-09 (Table 1 and Figure 2).

NOTE: See link to the right for a downloadable file of the table and figures.

The Oregon Center for Public Policy is a Silverton, Oregon-based non-profit research institute that uses research and analysis to advance policies and practices that improve the economic and social prospects of low- and moderate-income Oregonians, the majority of Oregonians.