Distributional Analysis of the 1999-2001 Oregon Kicker Refund

Issue Brief
September 26, 2001

If the amount of Oregon income taxes collected exceeds the state economists' projections (from a forecast two years prior) by two percent or more, the entire excess is returned to the taxpayer. Individuals receive a refund check; corporations receive a tax credit. This policy is commonly called the "kicker" or the "two-percent kicker."

Related materials:

The Kicker: Permission Granted, March 5, 2001

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See the most recent State Economic Forecast

Below is a chart showing the distribution of the 2001 Oregon kicker benefits. The September 2001 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast established that the kicker will be $254 million.

2001 Estimated Kicker by Income Group

--- Approximate Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) of Group Estimated Average 2001 Kicker for Income Group* Percent of Total Kicker to Income Group
Lowest Quintile Below $8,000 $5 0.6%
Second Quintile Between $8,000 and $18,000 $28 3.6%
Middle Quintile** Between $18,000 and $32,000 $77 9.7%
Fourth Quintile Between $32,000 and $55,000 $154 19.4%
Top Quintile Above $55,000 $530 66.7%
Top Five Percent Above $90,000 $1,222 38.5%
Top One Percent Above $200,000 $3,378 21.3%
*The average kicker for all returns is $155.
**The average of the middle quintile approximates the median, which is the kicker that the typical taxpayer will receive.
Source: OCPP analysis of September 2001 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast and 1999 ODR Personal Income Tax Statistics.