Only the richest five percent of Oregonians are better off from the combined impact of tax changes and inflationary policies enacted by the Trump administration and the congressional Republican majority, according to a new analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP). The other 95 percent of Oregonians, those making less than $325,000 per year, are worse off, paying more for healthcare, food, and other costs. And the less you make, the worse it gets.

ITEP analyzed the combined impact of the Trump administration’s two biggest changes in tax policy so far: H.R. 1, the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the expiration of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits. The analysis layers on the impacts of other inflationary policies, including wave after wave of tariffs, Trump’s war in Iran, and immigration policies.

This is what the combined effect of these changes looks like:

The chart above shows what happens when you enact a massive tax package that mainly benefits the rich, take away health care tax credits from working families, and implement policies that raise costs for everyone.

H.R. 1: Huge tax cut mainly for the rich

In a flurry of upside-down redistribution, the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans passed H.R.1 in July of 2025. This tax and budget package heavily cut the taxes of the richest people while delivering meager benefits to working families. In Oregon, the tax cuts amount to more than $42,000 for the richest 1 percent, while the lowest-earning 20 percent got $70 on average. Unsurprisingly, the massive tax cuts going to the rich are the reason why the top 5 percent end up better off, even with the increased costs of healthcare and imported goods. 

Worse still, H.R. 1 partially pays for the tax cuts by slashing support for Medicaid and food assistance from low-and moderate-income families. Tens of thousands of Oregonians have already lost food assistance, while hundreds of thousands could begin losing their health care coverage next year. The law is also wreaking havoc with state finances, as Oregon faces a budget hole of nearly $1.3 billion by 2031 just for the Oregon Health Plan alone. The ITEP analysis does not include the additional financial harm to families from the loss of health care and food assistance. If it did, the numbers would look even worse for hardworking Oregonians.

Expiration of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits: a tax increase for many working families

Oregonians who purchase health insurance in the Oregon Health Insurance Marketplace saw a big tax increase due to deliberate inaction by Congress. Enhanced Premium Tax Credits have been a crucial tool in helping working families and small business owners afford healthcare by subsidizing the cost of health insurance purchased on the open market. However, Congress chose to let these tax credits expire at the end of 2025. As a result, over 100,000 Oregonians are either paying a lot more for their health insurance or have had to drop their coverage, putting their health in danger. In aggregate, this hurts the economic security of the lowest-earning 60 percent of Oregonians who are not on the Oregon Health Plan and instead have health insurance through the Marketplace. 

Self-inflicted price increases: tariffs, wars, and attacks on immigrants

Over the past year, the Trump administration has implemented waves of tariffs, walked some back, and increased them again. Tariffs are taxes on imports that are largely paid for by consumers. As a share of the nation’s economy, Trump’s tariffs are the biggest tax increase on Americans since 1982. And that tax increase is disproportionately felt by low- and middle-income working families here in Oregon and across the nation, making it the largest driver of why the combined impact of these policies is so upside-down. 

Layered on top of these tariffs are the surging fuel prices due to Trump’s war in Iran, which are estimated to have cost Americans more than $100 billion to date. Finally, prices for an array of other key products, including food and housing, have risen due to the loss of foreign-born workers.

In sum, the net effect of tax policies enacted thus far by the Trump administration and the Republican majority in Congress is tax cuts for the rich and higher prices for everyone else.